HOT TOPIC #28: Summary of Cases to Date

COVID-19 updates from San Juan Coun­ty around sub­jects on the minds of islanders

This Hot Top­ic will pro­vide a broad overview of con­firmed pos­i­tive cas­es to date in San Juan Coun­ty. This infor­ma­tion is very gen­er­al in nature to ensure pri­va­cy, but hope­ful­ly is a use­ful way to con­vey the nature of cas­es in San Juan Coun­ty over the last five and a half months.

Some things to keep in mind:

-It is vir­tu­al­ly impos­si­ble to draw any deci­sive con­clu­sions from a case count of only 30. As they say in the finance indus­try “past per­for­mance is no guar­an­tee of future results”.

-The world of pub­lic health sur­veil­lance is not a world of cer­tain­ty. Deter­mi­na­tions are often esti­mates or sup­po­si­tions based on avail­able infor­ma­tion. They may change, they may be wrong.

-For rea­sons detailed on the San Juan Coun­ty Case Count page, these num­bers may dif­fer from WA DOH or oth­er info sources.COVID-19 CASE SUMMARIES as of 8/10/20

TOTAL CASES: 30

ESTIMATED LOCATION of TRANSMISSION:
Out­side of San Juan Coun­ty: 15
With­in San Juan Coun­ty: 7
Unknown: 8*

*Of the 8 Unknown Cases:
3 appear to be false pos­i­tives (based on fol­low up testing)
2 were like­ly infect­ed by a com­mon source, unclear if out­side of SJC or not
1 unable to dis­cern due to unclear his­to­ry from patient
2 were like­ly from out­side of SJC due to trav­el his­to­ry, but hard to pin­point exact cause of transmission

NUMBER of CASES that RESULTED in SECONDARY CASES: 3
Aver­age Num­ber of Result­ing Sec­ondary Cas­es: 2
Nature of Sec­ondary Cases:All 6 Result­ed from close indoor famil­ial contact

OF 30 CASES, RESASONS for INITIAL TEST:
Symp­to­matic: 24
Poten­tial Expo­sure (includes expo­sure from out­side of SJC): 9
Asymp­to­matic Test­ing: 3
Unknown: 2

Note: there is some crossover between symp­to­matic and poten­tial exposure.

CONTACT TRACING:

Total num­ber of indi­vid­u­als iden­ti­fied and inves­ti­gat­ed as close con­tacts: 147 *

*Total SJC res­i­dents that were inves­ti­gat­ed as close con­tacts of con­firmed pos­i­tives. Some are close con­tacts of cas­es that occurred out­side of SJC.

Max­i­mum num­ber of close con­tacts for any one case: 12
Min­i­mum num­ber of close con­tacts for any one case: 0
Aver­age num­ber of close con­tacts per case: 4.9
Num­ber of close con­tacts of SJC con­firmed cas­es who test­ed pos­i­tive: 6

NOTE: A “close con­tact” is defined as: being less than six feet apart for fif­teen min­utes or more. These sit­u­a­tions aren’t always easy to quan­ti­fy, and excep­tions cer­tain­ly occur- but that def­i­n­i­tion is the accept­ed standard.

WHAT DO THESE NUMBERS TELL US?

-So far, there has been no com­mu­ni­ty trans­mis­sion in San Juan Coun­ty. The major­i­ty of cas­es have come from res­i­dents who trav­eled off-island and returned home. We need to remain vigilant.

-Lim­it­ing sec­ondary cas­es in San Juan Coun­ty to only 6 is a com­mu­ni­ty achieve­ment and a tes­ta­ment to the impor­tance of face cov­er­ings, lim­it­ed social inter­ac­tion (keep­ing our “bub­bles” small), and a rapid and effec­tive pub­lic health response.

-All of the cas­es known to be acquired in San Juan Coun­ty came from close house­hold con­tact with an infect­ed fam­i­ly mem­ber, or in one case, close house­hold con­tact with an infect­ed vis­i­tor from out­side of San Juan County.

-While zero cas­es to date have been tied to casu­al con­tact with a “tourist” or short term vis­i­tor to the islands, it is a risk, and some­thing that requires vig­i­lance from busi­ness­es, work­ers, and the broad­er community.

-With 147 close con­tacts requir­ing inves­ti­ga­tion and mon­i­tor­ing through­out their risk win­dow, pub­lic health sur­veil­lance is a labor inten­sive, but essen­tial job.

Over­all: so far, nice work San Juan Coun­ty. Zero cas­es is always the goal, but 30 over five and a half months is wor­thy of being called a suc­cess. We need to stay focused and antic­i­pate chal­lenges to come, but the shared effort to date has led to good results. Thanks to all for ongo­ing sac­ri­fice and dedication.

You can support the San Juan Update by doing business with our loyal advertisers, and by making a one-time contribution or a recurring donation.