San Juan Real Estate Market Reaches All-Time High

Posted October 23, 2020 at 5:30 am by

Merri Ann Simonson - Contributed photo

By Mer­ri Ann Simon­son, Cold­well Banker San Juan Islands

The third-quar­ter results for San Juan Island and San Juan Coun­ty were con­sis­tent with the first quar­ter results; very robust.

The sec­ond quar­ter was in COVID shock but that gave way to a strong third quarter.

Per the NWMLS, the dol­lar vol­ume year-to-date on San Juan Island was $139,281,708 with a total of 188 trans­ac­tions. This reflects a 65% increase in the dol­lar vol­ume and a 38% increase in the num­ber of transactions.

For San Juan Coun­ty, the total dol­lar vol­ume was $292,879,941 with a total of 430 trans­ac­tions. The coun­ty also had an increase which was 41% in dol­lar vol­ume and 34% in the num­ber of transactions.

Based on the active mar­ket, we will com­plete this year above the 2005 dol­lar vol­ume, which was when the vol­ume and num­ber of trans­ac­tions reached an all-time high.

               TRANSACTION RECAP REPORT 

San Juan Island    
Jan-Sept 2020 188 $139,281,708
Jan-Sept 2019 136 $ 84,399,236
Jan-Sept 2018 180 $ 98,760,950
Jan-Sept 2017 230 $113,662,656
     
San Juan County    
Jan-Sept 2020 430 $292,879,941
Jan-Sept 2019 321 $207,761,506
Jan-Sept 2018 394 $218,972,280
Jan-Sept 2017 443 $217,716,790
     

 

 

For the agents and bro­ker­age firms, this mar­ket would be con­sid­ered incred­i­ble. Cold­well Banker San Juan exceed­ed our entire 2005 year’s vol­ume by the third quar­ter in 2020.

The major­i­ty of our agents, and those through­out the coun­ty are hav­ing their best year ever. The source of all this activ­i­ty is extreme­ly low-inter­est rates, the exit­ing of the met­ro­pol­i­tan areas towards a safe haven loca­tion away from COVID and civ­il unrest.

Fur­ther, many prospec­tive buy­ers have been work­ing out of the home and have real­ized, they do not need to be in Seat­tle, they can work remote from paradise.

The buy­er pro­file remains the same as always. The age group is most­ly 45–65 years, look­ing for a sec­ond home that will become their future retire­ment loca­tion. Most are inter­est­ed in water view or water­front homes. Once lodg­ing opened in the coun­ty, buy­ers were dri­ving from the west­ern Wash­ing­ton area and pur­chas­ing homes in the $1m to $2m range, which reduced our inven­to­ry sharply.

                   SALE ACTIVITY OVER $1M                    

  CLOSED 2019 CLOSED

Y‑T-D

2020

PENDING FORECASTED

TOTAL FOR 2020

San Juan Island 20 41 16 57
San Juan County 43 81 29 110

Per the chart above, sales activ­i­ty over $1m prop­er­ties are ahead of 2019 with just our year-to-date clos­ings. The num­bers should be dou­ble that of 2019 at year-end 2020, if all the pend­ing sales close. High-end sales pro­vide upward move­ment in our medi­an home price.

As of Octo­ber 14, 2020, we have a total of 177 prop­er­ty list­ings on San Juan in the NWMLS, with 89 of those prop­er­ties in escrow. This is com­pared to  254 list­ings with  34 of those in escrow the same time last year. This reflects a 30% decrease in the total num­ber of list­ings and a 161% increase in the num­ber of escrows from last year same time. The inven­to­ry totals include all types of property.

The coun­ty reflects a decrease of 33% in total num­ber of list­ings and an increase in the num­ber of escrows from last year same time of 97%.

Recap of  San Juan County Market:

  • The medi­an home price for a 12 month peri­od end­ing Sept. 30, 2020, for the coun­ty and San Juan Island is $655,000 and $675,000 respec­tive­ly, these prices reflect an increase of 15% for the coun­ty and 24% for San Juan Island over last year same peri­od. The medi­an is a typ­i­cal mar­ket price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. This is not an appre­ci­a­tion cal­cu­la­tion but mere­ly a sol­id trend.
  • The medi­an land price for a 12 month peri­od end­ing Sep­tem­ber 30, 2020, for the coun­ty and San Juan Island is $199,000 and $207,000, respec­tive­ly. The increase is 15% for the coun­ty and  17% for San Juan Island over last year same period.
  • The aver­age home price for a 12 month peri­od end­ing Sep­tem­ber 2020 for the coun­ty and San Juan Island is $889,985 and $999,814, respec­tive­ly. The increase is 12% for the coun­ty and 38% for San Juan Island. The aver­age price for land for the coun­ty and San Juan Island is $274,297 and $244,366,
  • YTD the aver­age days on mar­ket num­ber (DOM) for homes and con­dos in the coun­ty and on San Juan Island was 176 and 186, respec­tive­ly. These num­bers are very sim­i­lar to last year, at this time. The aver­age days on mar­ket num­ber for land in the coun­ty was 369 days and it was 407 days for San Juan.
  • YTD sales in excess of $1m each rep­re­sent­ed 53% of our total dol­lar vol­ume for the coun­ty and 60% for San Juan Island. This is a major increase from the num­bers last year, at this time and explains why the inven­to­ry in this cat­e­go­ry is down to slim and none. The per­cent­ages in past years has been in the range of 35–38%.
  • YTD sell­ers nego­ti­at­ed on aver­age 3.9% off the list price at the time of sale for homes and con­dos in the coun­ty and 3.49% for San Juan Island. These per­cent­ages are down from last year.
  • YTD sell­ers nego­ti­at­ed on aver­age 10.1% off the list price at the time of sale for land in the Coun­ty and 5.4% on San Juan Island. These per­cent­ages are also down from last year.

The bot­tom line is that the mar­ket is incred­i­bly busy; agents, real estate bro­ker­age firms, lenders, escrow, title, apprais­ers and the well, home and sep­tic inspec­tors and land use con­sul­tants are all work­ing to their max­i­mum capa­bil­i­ties, if not more. If you are buy­ing and sell­ing in this mar­ket, please make sure your con­tract date expec­ta­tions are rea­son­able giv­en the cur­rent circumstances.

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Categories: Real Estate

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